A September poll suggests Oregon’s governor’s race is close, giving Republican Christine Drazan a narrow edge over Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in their rematch. But OPB politics reporter Lauren Dake cautions against reading too much into one survey.
The poll, conducted by DHM Research for the business-backed group Grow Oregon, found 45% of 600 likely voters supporting Drazan and 43% supporting Kotek. Drazan’s two-point edge is smaller than the poll’s four-point margin of error. An earlier poll released by Drazan’s campaign also suggested a close race.
Dake told the Jefferson Exchange that Drazan led in some polls during their 2022 contest, which Kotek ultimately won.
“To be fair, it is very difficult right now for any incumbent politician to be popular,” Dake said.
Dake said voters are frustrated by school budget cuts, the cost of living, housing and conditions in downtown Portland. Kotek has been governor for nearly four years and previously served as Oregon’s longtime House speaker, making her a focus of that frustration, Dake said.
One difference from 2022 is the absence of Betsey Johnson, the well-funded unaffiliated candidate who drew support from rural voters. Dake said Drazan has spent more time campaigning in the Portland metro area this year, appealing to voters dissatisfied with the state’s direction.
Kotek’s campaign, meanwhile, has sought to tie Drazan to President Donald Trump and his administration’s policies. Dake said some Democrats considering Drazan remain uncertain about how she would respond to federal actions they oppose.
Money gives Kotek an advantage for now. Dake said that, when she last checked, Kotek had raised about $12 million and had about $8 million on hand. Drazan had raised roughly $9.5 million but had about $2.5 million remaining after a competitive Republican primary. Dake said a question for the race is whether major donor Phil Knight will contribute to Drazan’s campaign.
Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith is also on the ballot. Dake said it is difficult to predict whether he could affect the outcome of a close race.
"It is rare that a third-party candidate like a Pacific Green Party candidate would actually sway a race," Dake said. "But we have seen it before."
The candidates have recently converged on another issue: Both support a statewide pause on new data center development. Drazan has called for immediate action, while Kotek says the state needs legislative authority to impose a statewide moratorium.
Dake said Drazan’s challenge is to convince voters who want change that she would stand up to the Trump administration when she believes Oregon’s interests require it. Kotek, she said, must persuade voters that she can make progress on the problems they see around them.
Guest
- Lauren Dake, politics reporter, OBP
