Oregon voters narrowly passed Measure 114 in November 2022, approving new restrictions on gun purchases that have yet to take effect.
But a new study co-authored by Oregon State University economist Katie Bollman found the prospect of those restrictions prompted a sharp increase in firearm demand.
Researchers estimate Oregon recorded about 63,000 more firearm-related background checks than expected in the 18 months after the election. The study found the increase wasn't simply driven by people moving up purchases they already planned to make.
"What we find is that it's largely driven by new purchases that folks who weren't planning to purchase a firearm in the near future ended up buying one because of the Measure 114 referendum," Bollman said.
Measure 114 would require a permit to purchase a firearm and prohibit magazines holding more than 10 rounds. The study found firearm-related background checks rose nearly 14% in the runup to the election and surged 157% immediately after voters approved the measure.
Researchers used background checks as a proxy for firearm demand because Oregon does not maintain a registry that would allow them to determine exactly how many guns are in the state.
Bollman, an assistant professor of economics in Oregon State University's School of Public Policy, said she approached the question as an economist studying how people respond to incentives.
"I'm an empirical microeconomist," Bollman said. "Which means that I spend a lot of time working with data to try and answer questions about essentially how people respond to different incentives that they might encounter."
Measure 114 was scheduled to take effect in December 2022, but legal challenges blocked its implementation. The measure remains tied up in court, and Oregon lawmakers have delayed its implementation until Jan. 1, 2028.
The study found firearm demand eventually returned to near its previous level. But researchers concluded the initial surge resulted in more firearms entering Oregon than would have been expected without Measure 114.
"If your goal is to reduce the number of firearms in Oregon, then there's this bad situation you can end up in if folks anticipate that there is going to be a change and then no change actually takes place," Bollman said.
The findings could have implications beyond Oregon. The researchers describe the phenomenon as a "Steel Paradox": The prospect of tighter gun restrictions can prompt people to buy firearms before those restrictions take effect.
In 2024, 44,447 people died from firearm-related injuries nationwide, including 27,593 firearm suicides. In Oregon, 663 people died from firearm injuries that year, including 524 by suicide.
Although the courts blocked the measure's implementation in December 2022, the buying spree had already occurred. Because the restrictions never actually took effect, the state's total firearm supply remains permanently higher than it otherwise would have been. The measure is still tied up in court, and Oregon lawmakers have delayed its implementation until Jan. 1, 2028.
Guest
- Katie Bollman, economics professor, Oregon State University
