The annual Oregon Housing Needs Analysis sets statewide and local housing production goals, targeting diverse income levels.
The state estimated that to keep up with demand, Ashland needs to build more than 3,500 new housing units over the next 20 years, but city officials say that’s not possible.
Ashland officials say this year’s state production target — more than 200 units — exceeds the historic high of 120.
Linda Reid, Ashland housing program manager, said the city would need more state funding to reach the levels suggested in the state report.
"We are very open to the creation of affordable housing in Ashland and try to encourage it, so we would love to meet those goals," she said. "I don't know how we would, unless the state were also giving us enough money to pay for the development of that specific housing."
In an October email to the state, Ashland Community Development Director Brandon Goldman said private development alone will not meet those targets, even with reduced city fees, public housing support and more flexible land-use rules.
"Additionally, in my assessment the current capacity of regional affordable housing providers would not be capable of developing these numbers of low- and moderate-income housing throughout the region on an annual basis," he said.
Instead, Ashland is focusing on its 2023 local Housing Production Strategy, including initiatives to encourage affordable rental housing and homeownership. A 2019 Oregon law requires cities with over 10,000 people to develop an eight-year housing strategy plan.
Oregon has underbuilt housing for decades and is currently suffering from a homelessness crisis.
Grants Pass had a similar reaction to the state's report. The city estimated that Grants Pass will need more than 4,000 housing units over the next 20 years — less than half of what the state plan projects.
Bradley Clark, community development director for Grants Pass, said the state’s report is somewhat useful because it happens more frequently than the local analysis.
"The OHNA is just kind of a companion document that is there," he said. "It's nice to kind of see how those numbers compare and align with each other."
Still, he said, they’re mostly focusing on their local plan from 2021.
The state's production goals for cities' urban growth boundaries are wide-ranging. Over the next 20 years, the report estimates cities will need:
- Medford: nearly 21,000 housing units
- Roseburg: almost 6,000 units
- Central Point: more than 2,500 units
- Bandon: about 850 units
Reid said Ashland will continue working to build more housing for diverse income levels, but wonders about potential repercussions if Ashland can't build as much as the state expects.
"Will we be held accountable to numbers that we have no idea how we can attain?" she asked.
Ashland is studying whether to create a manufactured home park zone to protect the parks from being redeveloped for other uses.
