As neighboring states clamor to build up or revive dormant nuclear energy sectors to meet rising demand for electricity from data centers in the next few years, Oregon’s energy future includes no such plans.
Instead, the 25-year Oregon Energy Strategy published by the state’s energy department on Wednesday focuses on policy recommendations that will by 2050 increase energy efficiency in buildings and in the industrial and transportation sectors and grow existing clean energy infrastructure. That means the state will rely on more solar, more wind and more alternative energy sources such as thermal and wave energy than fossil fuels.
Nuclear shows up just six times in the 150-page report as something that the state should study for developments and opportunities.
Max Woods, assistant director of nuclear safety and emergency preparedness at the Oregon Department of Energy, said the state is “nuclear curious,” but “taking a more cautious approach that is based on its history and tradition.”
New nuclear plants have been outlawed in Oregon since a voter-approved ballot measure passed in 1980. In 1993, the state’s only nuclear plant closed down. Although the state gets about 3% of its energy annually from a nuclear plant, it’s in Washington and run by the federal Bonneville Power Administration.
“Even if nuclear power were to come to Oregon, it takes a long time to get it through permitting — there’s a lot of security and safety review that has to happen, and for good reason, and they’re (reactors) expensive,” Woods said. “Put those factors together, and that’s a long time to come before any such facility might be built.”
Growing energy demand from data centers in Washington spurred lawmakers there recently to invest $25 million in nuclear energy project development, and Idaho has passed policies meant to clear regulatory hurdles and court private nuclear companies. California lawmakers in 2022 voted to delay closing the state’s only nuclear plant by at least five years while they evaluate potentially reversing course. These decisions are almost entirely being driven by expected demand from data centers in the next few years.
Oregon officials acknowledge in the state’s 25-year plan that the largest driver of energy demand in Oregon in at least the next five years will be from data centers. In future years, they expect electrification in other sectors to meet and eventually outpace demand from data centers. Oregon has among the largest data center markets in the world, which drove electricity consumption in the state up 20% between 2013 and 2023.
“Whether the nuclear power is built in Oregon or not — that’s the question we’re kind of grappling with right now: What the value proposition is for our state,” said Woods. “Our neighbors aren’t really wrestling with that same question.”
But in their 25-year energy planning, state officials found there were faster and more cost-effective ways to meet growing electricity demand than trying to open the state to new nuclear development.
The Oregon Legislature this year considered two proposals that would have opened the door to nuclear development in the state for the first time in decades. One would have allowed voters in Umatilla County to exempt the county from a statewide ban on new nuclear energy facilities.
Amazon data centers in eastern Oregon have caused 554% load growth at the Umatilla Electric Cooperative in just the last ten years, according to a Sightline Institute analysis of US Energy Information Administration data.
Another proposal would have directed the state energy department to study what it would take and whether it was worth developing a nuclear sector in Oregon to meet the state’s needs.
Both died in committees before receiving larger votes.
Nuclear energy does not directly produce carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases contributing to climate change, and it can produce more energy with less fuel than any other individual source of existing power, according to MIT. But in the absence of any federally designated and regulated site where spent nuclear waste can be deposited, industry growth has raised concerns for environmental and public health advocates. Most nuclear facilities store radioactive waste in lined underground storage tanks onsite.
To overrule Oregon’s nuclear ban, voters would have to repeal it or the federal government would need to create a national repository for nuclear waste.
The broader energy plan
Developing the Oregon Energy Strategy took two years, according to a news release from the state energy department. It included modeling scenarios that would prioritize affordability and reliability in the state’s energy sector while meeting demand and energy policy and climate change objectives.
Officials made adjustments to changes in federal policy under President Donald Trump, who has in the first ten months of his second term attempted to claw back billions of congressionally approved federal clean energy investments.
Policy recommendations include imposing new reporting requirements for large electricity users, such as data centers, to understand the role such users play in the state’s greenhouse gas pollution, and whether regulations are needed to bring them in line with state climate policies.
Officials recommend establishing a fund to help provide low- and no-cost loans for clean energy projects to support a transition away from fossil fuels, and to establish a state-sponsored block grant program for tribal clean energy projects. Officials also recommend implementing a road use charge for all light duty passenger vehicles, such as Amazon delivery vans, to fund programs that promote electric vehicle adoption.
The plan calls for funding incentive programs for electric bikes and electric vehicles, as well as Safe Routes to School and Great Streets initiatives that encourage bike transportation over cars. It also recommends major overhauls to transmission regulations, including a state-level commission tasked with speeding up new connections to Oregon’s grid.
Key strategy takeaways are that the most cost effective way to reduce energy demand and costs in Oregon is for lawmakers to continue to prioritize policies that accelerate building and transportation electrification. That includes cash incentives that make it more affordable to replace gas cars, gas buses, gas furnaces and appliances with electric ones, to electrify heating and cooling systems and to weatherize homes and businesses.
Models show if this continues, the state’s overall energy demand in 2050 could be 22% lower than it was in 2024, even if there is more demand for electricity in 2050 than currently exists.
Modeling also revealed that delaying policies that accelerate energy efficiency will lead to higher costs down the line given the volatility of fossil fuels markets and climate change. Officials project that in the next few decades, the costs of climate change — such as billion-dollar wildfires, droughts, floods and other extreme weather — could cost the average Oregonian about $12,000 of annual income.
“A key backdrop to this discussion is the growing cost of climate change in Oregon,” they wrote. “Even as energy costs are rising, climate change is driving additional costs for Oregon households, businesses, industries, and government.”