It’s a slow start for California snowpack in 2024. Researchers conducting the first snow survey of the year at Phillips Station near Lake Tahoe on Tuesday reported only 30% of this month’s average snowpack at the site.
It’s a stark contrast to where the state was at last year, when a series of atmospheric rivers brought extraordinarily high levels of precipitation to California. In January of 2023, researchers measured a snow depth just under 6 feet at Phillips Station. Today, they measured 7.5 inches.
“On this date last year, our statewide snowpack was already at 177% of average to date, which is more than half of the average yearly total,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of the snow surveys program for California’s Department of Water Resources. “So, vastly different than what we’re standing on here today.”
Guzman said statewide snowpack is about 25% of average for this month. However, he said it’s still too early to say if this winter will be a wet or dry one. He said officials are readying themselves for conditions on either end of the spectrum.
“There can be so many things that happen with our storm systems between now and April, when we should see our peak snowpack,” he said.
Andrew Schwartz, the lead scientist and manager of the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, said he’s received a lot of questions about what this year’s El Nino weather pattern might mean for snow in California. But historically, he said El Nino isn’t a good indicator of what winter might look like for the state. Of the 10 snowiest years on record, Schwartz said five have come during El Nino years. Of the 10 least snowy years on record, he said four have been El Nino.
“Having an El Nino doesn’t necessarily mean it’s [going to be] big,” he said. “So the fact that we've been dry isn't necessarily a surprise, but it's certainly not ideal.”
Like Guzman, Schwartz said a lot can happen between now and April, which is when snowpack levels typically peak in California.
“It’s not time to hit the panic button just yet,” he said of today’s report.
Schwartz said the majority of snowfall typically comes in January and February. With that in mind, he said he’ll have a better idea of what the season could look like after the next four to six weeks.
“If we get through another four to six weeks, and we're still looking very dry … that's when it's going to become a lot more concerning because we don't have as much time to make up for that lack of snowfall at that point,” he said.
Guzman said precipitation from last year’s wet winter has kept water levels at statewide reservoirs well above average, at about 116%.
Schwartz said his hope for this season is that California sees — at the very least — average snowpack, which would allow the state to continue reaping the benefits of last year’s above-average precipitation in coming years. But if the state experiences a particularly dry winter, Schwartz said last year’s benefits may only last California through this spring and summer.
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