Oregon’s “kicker” law is once again bestowing its gifts.
The law refunds taxpayers whenever personal income taxes come in at least 2% higher than lawmakers anticipated when setting a two-year budget. The refund that will go out next year effectively means Oregon received $1.4 billion more in income taxes (and some other taxes) in the 2023-25 budget cycle than state economists expected when lawmakers passed the budget in June 2023.
While it’s been clear for some time a refund was on its way, state officials released the final amount on Friday.
The announcement marks the sixth consecutive budget cycle that Oregon taxpayers have received a kicker payment. And in sheer dollars, the payment amounts to the fourth largest kicker since the law was created in the late 1970s. The largest, by far, was a $5.6 billion refund that went out during the 2024 tax season.
But Oregon taxpayers might not want to get too comfortable expecting refunds going forward.
A run of kicker payments topping $1 billion that began during the 2017-19 budget cycle came under former state economist Mark McMullen. The state hired a new chief economist, Carl Riccadonna, last year — and he has promised change.
Riccadonna has tweaked the model Oregon uses to predict future tax revenues. He says that will make kicker payments less likely in the future.
For now, any taxpayer who filed Oregon taxes earlier this year can expect some money back if they file with the state next year — nearly 10% of what they owed the state in their 2024 personal income taxes. Kicker refunds are delivered in the form of tax credits rather than checks.
You can calculate your kicker refund using this tool.
