U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz has held Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District, the largest in the state, since 2021. It’s Oregon’s only reliably Republican congressional district, covering 70,000 square miles of mostly rural areas in the southern, central and eastern parts of the state.
Flipping the district would be a long shot. The Cook Political Report, an election-forecasting publication, labels the district as solidly Republican. Prediction markets put Bentz’s reelection odds above 95%.
But Bentz’s opponent in November’s midterm elections, Democrat Chris Beck, thinks disapproval of President Donald Trump is one of the few things that could turn the district blue. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to historic lows.
“I don't think anybody wanted any of this,” Beck said. “The country's at a turning point.”
Beck served in the Oregon House of Representatives before working in conservation and rural development with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. He said he decided to run after federal layoffs following Trump’s election.
Bentz said he understands why his opponent would tie him to the president.
“Why wouldn't you, if you were a Democrat, try to tie everything to trashing Trump?” he said.
He said he has disagreed with the president on some policies — like trade — but believes a united party is important to passing legislation.
“If you're going to get anything done, you don't get it done by disagreeing,” he said. “You get it done by all going in the same direction.”
Bentz dismissed the strategy of blaming Trump in Oregon, where the Democrats hold power almost everywhere outside his district.
“The proper question for the media and everybody else to ask is: ‘Okay, great. Trump is not popular. What do you got?’” he said. “What are you going to do to try to address some of these extremely difficult issues?”
Rural healthcare
Beck said he would begin with repealing H.R. 1, or the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Bentz supported. The law is expected to cut Medicaid spending by around $1 trillion while adding restrictions, like work requirements, for access.
“Medicaid recipients will lose their coverage. Those are people who will not be able to be served by hospitals, and hospitals won't gain those Medicaid reimbursements,” Beck said. “That is a financial death knell for many rural hospitals.”
Bentz, a former hospital attorney, said he supports Medicaid, which over a third of his constituents use.
“Medicaid is an essential, important program,” he said. “We have to have it.”
He described the work requirements as minimal.
“We all should be contributing something, no matter how modest, because we're all in this together,” he said.
Bentz noted the bill also allocated $50 billion over five years to rural hospitals. He said he’s worked to bring that money to Oregon.
He recently introduced legislation to expand Medicaid eligibility to more hospitals providing psychiatric care.
Beck, meanwhile, supports a single-payer healthcare program for the country. He said he would help Sen. Ron Wyden, who would chair the Senate Finance Committee if Democrats win a majority, push that vision.
“I'm hoping he will put to the country an Oregon Health Plan-style national bill,” Beck said.
Affordability
Affordability is another concern for voters this year. Like candidates around the country, Beck blamed the war with Iran for higher fuel costs.
“No one wanted to be in a war that would be raising all of our prices,” Beck said.
Bentz said he supported the decision to attack Iran but recognizes the cost to his district.
“I wish it wasn't as painful for people, especially my people, who have to buy diesel every day,” he said.
He said Democrats have historically supported raising the cost of fossil fuels to combat climate change.
“Now that prices are up, what are they doing? Running around in big circles, yelling about Trump having raised prices,” he said.
Tariffs are another affordability flashpoint linked to Trump. Here, Bentz said he disagrees with the president.
“I was one of the few in our Republican conference who spoke up and said, ‘Hey, tariffs are extremely difficult to use as a tool,’” he said. “I was willing to call that out.”
Bentz said that perspective wasn’t very popular among Republicans at the time. But he said restricting trade can cost farmers and others in his district who export to Asia.
Bentz said his focus is on the rural Oregon economy. Over the summer, he introduced the bipartisan Wildfire Reduction Market Expansion Act that would support the conversion of forest biomass into usable fuel.
Blue wave
“This is likely to be what we would call a ‘wave election,’” said Chris Shortell, a political science professor at Portland State University. “A wave election in favor of Democrats.”
But Shortell said Democrats are unlikely to flip Bentz’s district. He said wave elections have the most impact in states under the incumbent party’s control — that would be Republican-majority states this year.
Democrats hold Oregon’s five other U.S. House seats plus both U.S. Senate seats. They also control the governorship and hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
The governor’s race suggests voters also have concerns about Democratic leadership. Gov. Tina Kotek is polling only slightly ahead of her Republican opponent Christine Drazan.
Bentz has refused to debate Beck or appear in person at forums.
“There is no reason to engage in a political debate when to do so creates desperately needed publicity for the opposing, and for the most part unknown, candidate,” Bentz told the Rogue Valley Times.
Beck said he thinks people are tired of not seeing their congressman.
“I want to embrace conversation and difference and even disagreement and argument,” he said.
Shortell said the election results for Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District may still be interesting, even if Democrats’ chances of picking up the seat are slim. He said wave elections are notoriously hard to predict.
“There are going to be surprises in this election in both directions,” he said.
Ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, November 3, or returned to a drop box by 8 p.m.
