California is still counting its votes — but based on early results, it’s possible that voter turnout dropped somewhere between 6 and 11% since 2020. Nationwide, that figure is currently about 3%. The California Secretary of State’s Office projects just over 16 million total ballots were cast this year.
Eric McGhee, a policy director with the non-partisan Public Policy Institute of California, wrote about it for the organization’s blog. He said it’s not clear just yet why fewer Californians or Americans turned out — but usually, excitement plays a big role.
“It would not be surprising if people just weren't that jazzed about the choices that they were offered,” he said.
2020 saw record high levels of voter participation, even in California, which isn’t competitive in the presidential race.
McGhee said that might’ve been situational as people were still under pandemic restrictions.
“Voters just didn't have a lot of normal distractions,” he said.
Or, it could be that the candidates and propositions just didn’t excite them.
“This election didn't seem to engage voters in the same way as the one four years ago,” McGhee said.
This could be the largest drop in turnout in the state in 50 years. Even with that decline, it was still higher than turnout in past decades.
One thing did change since the last presidential election: The state now automatically registers more eligible voters. But McGhee says that doesn’t explain the decline, and we might not know what actually did for a while.
“Some of the data that we would need to be able to make those kinds of assessments just aren't available yet,” he said.
California results will be certified in early December.
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